What if Russia wins in Ukraine? We can already see the shadows of a dark 2025

There are human activities where both sides can win. War is not one of them. Or Ukraine either Russia wins this war. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba openly says that we will lose this war if the current trajectory does not change.

To be clear: this is still avoidable. Suppose the roughly four-fifths of Ukrainian territory still controlled by Kiev receives military commitments from the West strong enough to deter any further Russian advances, secure large-scale investment in economic reconstruction, encourage Ukrainians to return from abroad to rebuild their country, and allow for a stable , pro-European policy and reforms. In five years, the country will join the EU, and then, under the new administration of the United States, it will begin the process of joining NATO. Most of Ukraine becomes a sovereign, independent, free country, firmly anchored in the West.

The loss of a large amount of territory, the suffering of at least 3.5 million Ukrainians living under Russian occupation, and the number of dead, maimed and traumatized would represent a terrible price. This would not be the complete victory that the Ukrainians hoped for and deserved; but it would still be a victory for Ukraine and a historic defeat for Russia. Most Ukrainians might see it as such. In a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll shared with me in advance, Ukrainians are asked whether they might (albeit with difficulty) accept a combination of economic renewal and membership in the European Union and NATO for the current territory to end the war. In just the past six months, the share of those who said yes jumped from 47% to 64%.

However, to achieve this outcome with Donald Trump in the White House would require a European coalition willing to take on security commitments of unprecedented magnitude and audacity. There is a growing understanding of this among European leaders, but democratic politics in most European countries is miles away from empowering them to do so. In order to try to convince Europeans to support the necessary policies, but also to understand the consequences if – which seems most likely – they do not do so in time, we must ask the question: what if Russia wins?

If Russia wins, we should realistically expect the following consequences for Ukraine, Europe, the USA and peace in the world. Ukraine would be defeated, divided, demoralized and emptied. The money would not come to rebuild the country; instead, another wave of people would leave it. Politics would become bitter, with a strong anti-Western trend. New opportunities for Russian disinformation and political destabilization would emerge. Necessary reforms would stall, and thus progress towards EU membership.

Europe as a whole would see an escalation of the hybrid war that Russia is already waging against it, which still goes largely unnoticed by most Western Europeans who are carelessly shopping for Christmas. Not a week goes by without an incident: a Russian destroyer fires a flare at the German military helicopter; they exist explosive DHL packagessabotage on French railwaysan arson about a company owned by a Ukrainian in East London; submarine cables in the Baltic Sea they were cut; there is a credible threat of death top German arms manufacturer. Not everything can be safely connected to Moscow, but many can.

Full-spectrum hybrid warfare includes election interference. In Georgia, the elections were rigged. In the Moldovan referendum on the EU, about 9% of the votes were directly bought by Russia, according to the presidentMaia Sandu. The first round of presidential elections will be repeated in Romania, because the court established a major violation of TikTok’s campaign rules. “Ah, it’s Eastern Europe!” exclaims the smug Christmas shopper in Madrid, Rome or Düsseldorf. But the head of Germany’s domestic security service recently warned that Russia will try to interfere in the general elections in Germany in February, which is not marginal for the future of Europe.

In December, we saw President Vladimir Putin again supremely confident at his annual marathon end-of-year press conference complete with Call-the-Tsar phone call, despite the recent Ukrainian assassination of his WMD general. His is now a war economy, dependent on military production to sustain growth, and a dictatorship defined by confrontation with the West. It would be more than naive to hope that diplomacy can achieve some magical moment when Putin’s Russia will suddenly become “satisfied” with the outcome in Ukraine, and return to peacetime business as usual. When NATO planners say that we should be ready for a possible Russian aggression on NATO territory by 2029, they are not just selling horror stories to increase military budgets.

Maga voters in the US may say “well, what’s in it for us? You Europeans take care of yourselves! We have to worry about China”. But Russia is now working more closely than ever with China, North Korea and Iran. Putin may be indicted by an international criminal court, but he still travels halfway around the world as a welcome guest. He himself spoke about the new “global majority” and the “formation of a completely new world order”. In this new order, war and the conquest of territory are completely acceptable instruments of politics, in continuity with poisoning, sabotage, misinformation and interference in elections. Russia’s victory in Ukraine will encourage China to increase its pressure on Taiwan and North Korea to deal with South Korea.

This brings us to the most serious consequence: nuclear proliferation. Remember that Ukraine voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994, in exchange for security guarantees from the US, the UK and Russia — and then got hit by one of the powers that promised it security. In the latest KIIS poll, 73% of Ukrainians support Ukraine to “restore its nuclear weapons”. Interestingly, 46% say they would do so even if the West imposed sanctions and stopped aid. In fact, Ukrainians are telling the West: if you won’t defend us, we will [expletive deleted] let’s do it ourselves. During recent visits to Ukraine, I was told several times: “It’s NATO or nuclear weapons!” But it is not only about Ukraine. Vulnerable countries around the world, also looking at what is happening in the Middle East, will draw the same conclusion. The more countries—and possibly non-state actors—acquire nuclear weapons, the more certain they will one day be used.

In the German elections, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is shamelessly and shamefully trying to use the fear of nuclear war for electoral advantage over his main rivalChristian Democrat Friedrich Merz. In fact, it is precisely the consequences of the West’s self-deterrence due to the fear of Russian nuclear escalation in Ukraine, personified by Scholz and skilfully exploited by Putin, that increase the probability of nuclear proliferation, and thus the long-term risk of nuclear war.

The conclusion is clear and depressingly familiar. The unwillingness of European democracies to pay a high price now means that the world will pay an even higher price later.