Trump Wants China’s Help in Making Peace in Ukraine. He’s Unlikely to Get It. – The Diplomat

The newly elected US President Donald Trump called Chinese President Xi Jinping until his inauguration on January 20 in a surprise move that appears to be part of a plan to involve Beijing in Ukraine ceasefire talks.

Just after his recent one meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris, Trump published“There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin” and “China can help.” That latter remark suddenly took on more significance after Trump extended an unusual invitation to a foreign leader to attend the Jan. 20 ceremony.

Leaving aside whether While Xi will accept Trump’s invitation to Washington DC (he probably won’t), the more important question is whether he will actually help Trump end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

China had a strong economic and trade relationship with Russia throughout the war and refrained from criticizing Putin. Although it denied providing military aid to Moscow, reports suggest that China allowed some goods used on the battlefield to be sent to Russia.

On the surface, Trump’s initiative and what China has the latest tan on the table with Brazil, they look like two reasonably well-coordinated peace proposals. Both are calling for a ceasefire along the current frontlines, followed by negotiations on a permanent settlement. Both seem to accept Russia claim frozen territorial status quo, which would mean that Ukraine would lose almost 20 percent of its territory illegally occupied by Moscow forces since 2014.

Ukraine and most of its Western partners continue refuse this as unacceptable. Before Trump’s election victory, this was a viable position as the West managed to prevent a military defeat of Ukraine on the battlefield.

This position can be slow changingbut it is not clear that this would suddenly make China a welcome partner of the West in any peace talks – least of all Ukraine.

Kiev has always been wary of China and its international policies, from the Belt and Road economic and trade initiative to the recent peace proposal. Zelenskyy called Sino-Brazilian peace initiative “destructive”. He too defendant China and Brazil that they are “pro-Russian”.

Zelenskyy is personally deeply invested in his own peace plan, especially since Ukrainians have made enormous sacrifices in the war so far. That doesn’t rule out compromises, but makes concessions to China, widely seen by Ukrainians as one of Russia’s main backers in the war, highly unlikely.

Even if there was a sudden change of heart in Kiev, it is highly doubtful that a deal brokered by Trump would serve Beijing’s interests. For Xi, it is always about strengthening China’s role and influence as a global power. China will be worried if the war ends, the United States may become even more focused about its trade war with Beijing.

So far, the war in Ukraine has allowed China in favor from the pressure he put on the West.

The US suggests it will withdraw its alliance obligations in Europe have raised doubts about the reliability of the United States as an ally of Ukraine. This is becoming more acute as Trump prepares to move into the White House.

The longer the war in Ukraine continues in this fashion, the longer China will reap the benefits of reducing the relative weight of the United States as its main geopolitical and geoeconomic rival.

A carefully managed continuation of the war against Ukraine, in contrast, benefits China in asserting its global leadership.

China’s approach to managing the “Ukraine crisis” was reiterated by Xi at a recent conference BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, iua meeting with former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Beijing on December 12. It is aimed at respecting “three key principles: no expansion of battlefields, no escalation of hostilities and no fanning of the fire, and [striving] for a quick de-escalation of the situation.”

This is far from the end of the war as envisioned by Trump. A Trump-brokered deal would likely lift sanctions and offer the possibility of restoring a more cooperative relationship between the West and Russia.

This would significantly strengthen the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin, contribute to Russia’s international rehabilitation, reduce his country’s dependence on China, and potentially reignite the historic Sino-Russian rivalry. Trump’s claim that he wants to “unify” Russia and China will not go unnoticed in Beijing.

Even if Trump fails to drive a wedge between Russia and China, a stronger Kremlin would mean a shift in power dynamics in the Moscow-Beijing partnership, potentially elevating Putin from junior partner to Xi’s peer.

From China’s perspective, helping Trump broker a Russia-Ukraine deal offers little incentive, other than potentially easing U.S. trade and tariff war against it. Western resource depletion in Ukraine’s defense keeps it out of the Indo-Pacific region, where most of the competition between China and the United States will take place.

It is not in Xi’s interest to see Putin strategically defeated in Ukraine, but keeping Russia locked in its war against Ukraine will ensure that the partnership between Beijing and Moscow remains on current terms with balance power facing China.

Keeping the war in Ukraine going, rather than helping Trump end it, is therefore the most likely choice Beijing will make.

This article was originally published on Conversation. Read it original article.