The F-35 and the Middle East—Complicated Doesn’t Begin to Describe It

Balancing a partnership in the Middle East is never easy, especially when it involves the sale of advanced military equipment. When it comes to the most advanced stealth hunter, complicated doesn’t begin to describe the situation.

During President-elect Donald Trump’s first term, the White House sought to sell Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) after the Middle Eastern nation formalized relations with Israel as part of Abraham’s covenants.

Israel previously objected to the Arab country acquiring the fifth-generation stealth fighter, but later withdrew its objections. The security doctrine of the Jewish state has long favored qualitative superiority over neighbors and possible rivals. Israel sought the most advanced military technology from the United States—or developed it in a country with some programs, such as your Merkava main battle tanks (MBTs)—while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also want to deny adversaries (and potential adversaries) the same technology. As a nation surrounded by hostility, Israel must recognize that today’s friends could be tomorrow’s enemies (Iran being one such example).

However, the deal was never made, and the Biden administration did not move forward. That seemed to be the end.

Then, last fall, there were reports that the UAE was hoping for a revival a multi-billion dollar business if Trump wins the 2024 presidential election — which he did, making the greatest political comeback in modern history. This again could result in a significant reversal, as Abu Dhabi showed last spring could adopt Chinese-made Chengdu J-20 Mighty Dragon, probably the most successful fifth-generation fighter program after the F-35.

Beijing and Abu Dhabi demanded it expand cooperation through investments in the Pacific Islands and Africa. The Gulf state is also considering increasing its use of China’s currency, the yuan, which offers China a low-risk gateway to the region. Washington could use the F-35 to curry new favor with the UAE.

Saudi Arabia goes with Turkey

NATO member Turkey was infamously kicked out of the F-35 program for adoption S-400 Triumph of Russian production air defense system. Options have been floated that could see Ankara return to the proverbial F-35, but it remains unknown if that will happen once Trump returns to the White House.

Meanwhile, Turkey sought to develop domestic construction TF Kaan next generation the invisible hunter. To help finance its development, Ankara has been looking for foreign buyers—and it is among the countries that have expressed interest Saudi Arabia.

Since the F-35 was probably off the table for many of the reasons already mentioned, Riyadh explored other options. The choice of a Turkish-made fighter would probably meet with greater approval in Washington than alternatives from China (J-20 Mighty Dragon) or, even worse, Russia Sukhoi Su-57 (NATO registered name Felon).

“A deal for 100 TF Kaans would also come without precedent and could give Turkey much-needed investment in an ambitious aircraft project. Additionally, such a large Saudi order could help lower the cost per aircraft, which in turn could help Turkey win some additional foreign buyers who would otherwise be hesitant about the price,” Paul Iddon wrote for Forbes.

As Iddon also noted, the TF Kaan may not be a true “fifth-generation” fighter, but “generation 4.75” and “a tier above the Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon, but below truly stealthy fifth-generation aircraft like the F-35 and F- 22 Raptor.”

That would be good news for Israel, which would maintain an advantage even as those two countries an inch closer to some formal recognition. At the same time, it would ensure that Saudi Arabia acquires the capabilities necessary to deter Iran in a regional conflict.

Morocco and the F-35

At the end of November reports that were first circulated that Morocco could be on track to become the first Arab and African nation to acquire the F-35. Rabat’s desire to fly the F-35 comes naturally regional rival Algeria was looking for a Russian Su-57.

The Algerian Air Force currently operates a variety of Soviet-built aircraft, including the late Cold War Mikoyan MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-24. In 2022, he ordered approx a dozen Sukhoi Su-30sMKA. Moreover, Moscow has maintained close ties with Algeria since the Cold War, when the Soviet Union provided Algeria with military, technical and material support during its war of independence from France.

In November, Morocco also reconfirmed the links with the Jewish state for the first time since the beginning of the war in Gaza. Morocco is the sixth Arab League country to normalize relations with Israel.

Morocco’s purchase of F-35s could help strengthen ties with the United States and Israel while maintaining the balance of power in North Africa. But like every other aspect of the F-35 in the Arab world, it’s likely to be complicated!

Author experience and expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a writer from Michigan. He has contributed in more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites, with more than 3,200 published articles and more than twenty years of journalism career. He writes regularly on military equipment, firearms history, cyber security, politics and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing writer for Forbes and Cleaning jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can send an e-mail to the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image: WoodysPhotos / Shutterstock.com.

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