Russian victory in Ukraine would spark a new era of global insecurity

The election of Donald Trump has set the stage for what many expect will be a push for some sort of peace deal between Russia and Ukraine in the coming months. The outcome of these efforts is likely to redefine the entire global security framework and determine whether the rules-based order established after World War II will be replaced by a new era of international instability.

In the eighty years since the defeat of Nazi Germany, the United States has emerged as a key architect of global stability. The decades of unprecedented economic growth and relative peace that followed the Cold War allowed states to enjoy a period of relative security and prosperity under the auspices of international law. However, it is now clear that this peace has lulled some democracies into neglecting their defense obligations, helping to convince autocracies like Putin’s Russia that the time is right to challenge the existing order.

Ukraine is now on the front line of the conflict between the democratic and authoritarian world. Since the collapse of the USSR, the former captive nations of the Soviet Union have struggled to emerge from centuries of Russian imperial rule. Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia managed to integrate into Western economic and security alliances. Others, like Belarus, have returned to the Kremlin’s orbit. The Ukraine trip was the most challenging of all.

Since 1991, Ukraine has slowly but steadily moved away from its totalitarian past and set out on the path towards a democratic European future. However, these efforts have been hampered by Russia’s determination to reassert its control over the country. From the early years of the post-Soviet era, it became apparent that Moscow viewed the emergence of a truly independent and democratic Ukraine as an existential threat to its own authoritarian model and a potential catalyst for the next chapter in Russia’s retreat from empire.

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Ukraine’s resilience against an initial Russian invasion in 2014 and an all-out attack in 2022 demonstrates the success of the country’s nation-building efforts and the strength of Ukrainian civil society. Despite the enormous pressures of the war, today’s Ukraine remains committed to democratic values ​​and Euro-Atlantic integration. This helps explain why Putin considers further Ukrainian independence so dangerous.

Moscow’s ambitions are no secret. The Kremlin sees its war against Ukraine both as a key step toward rebuilding the Russian Empire and as a tool in the broader struggle to transform the geopolitical landscape. Putin is determined to erase Ukrainian statehood while at the same time eroding the very foundations of international law and global security.

In Putin’s worldview, today’s rules-based order is merely a construct that serves US interests, not a framework for mutually beneficial global cooperation. Now he is building a coalition of like-minded autocrats who share his ambition to establish a new world order defined by spheres of interest and power projection, where the world’s largest nations are free to dominate their smaller neighbors.

Events of the Eurasian Center

The first cracks in the current rules-based order began to appear in 2014. with the Russian invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. This provoked a hesitant response from the international community, which Moscow interpreted as an invitation to move on. More recently, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was seen as further evidence that the United States is a power in decline. This helped convince Putin to proceed with a full invasion of Ukraine.

The continued weakness of the West after the Russian invasion in 2022 made Putin even more ambitious and emboldened his authoritarian allies. Moscow has expanded its presence in Africa and the Middle East, while strengthening cooperation with China, Iran and North Korea. This axis of autocrats is playing an increasingly important role in the Russian war effort. In recent weeks, the first contingent of approximately ten thousand North Korean soldiers joined the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is unlikely to be the last.

It should now be abundantly clear that a Russian victory in Ukraine, however limited, would embolden autocracies around the world. This would cause a chain reaction and accelerate the disintegration of global security. Moreover, leaving Ukraine would send a chilling message to all of America’s allies. This would pave the way for a far more dangerous world where aggression is met with silence and order gives way to chaos.

It is not too late to prevent this return to geopolitical lawlessness. A firm Western stance on ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can still ensure “peace through strength” and send a strong message that international aggression will not be tolerated. However, failure to do so will undermine global security and prosperity for years to come.

Victor Liakh is the CEO of the company the Eastern Europe Foundation. From 2005 to 2008, he was the executive director of the Ukrainian Children’s Welfare Fund. He previously worked at the Ukrainian State Center for Youth Social Services (1996–2001) and UNICEF (2000–2001).

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff or its supporters.

The Eurasian Center mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values ​​and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the west to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the east.

Photo: Tankers of the 118th separate mechanized brigade drive a T-72 tank during a live firing exercise in the Zaporizhzhia sector, Zaporizhzhia region, southeastern Ukraine, July 21, 2024. (Photo: Ukrinform/NurPhoto)