Lebanon’s prime minister-designate is unlikely to confront Hezbollah

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29. January 2025. • 11:16 et

Lebanese Prime Minister-Diing

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David Daoud

After a two -year vacancy, Lebanon finally has a president. 9. January, Joseph Aoun He was transferred to duty as a fourteenth bearer of the Lebanese and international recognition. More importantly, if Lebanon also less glamorously chose the premiere who shaped the cabinet. Nawaf Salam – a former organization to release Palestine And Fatah militant Thanks to the Lebanese diplomat, who was also the president of the International Court of Justice – is now expected to premiere. Like a head Lebanon ‘With truth executive powerRaising the earth from its complex crises – not the least question of what will be from Hezbollah and his hands – they will fall on Salam.

His chances of success are far from clear. What is clear is that, given that Lebanon’s economic state is the need for his post -war renewal and balance of political powers in the country, Salam is very unlikely to significantly face Hezbollah and risk escalating the internal conflicts during his premiere.

The powers of the Prime Minister

According to the Lebanese Constitutional War Constitution, the Presidency-noted convention For the Marita, the dominant Christian sect of the country – he was the most prominent and powerful office of Lebanon. The 1989 Taif Agreement, which ended the Lebanese civil war, changed the Constitution and transferred Libanon’s balance to better align with the best assessment of the new demographic reality of the country. Partially expanded the power of the prime minister and his cabinet at the expense of the Presidency-creation and balance between two offices that would now act as a mutual Counterbalances.

Today, according to the Lebanese Constitution, cabinet “Set[s] The general policy of the state in all domains, drafting accounts and organizational decrees “and” monitors the implementation of law and regulations and monitoring activities over all state institutions, including civil, military and security administrations and institutions without exception. “If the cabinet connects and then gain the confidence of the parliament within thirty days, Salam will become the latest user of that extended power.

Lebanese political landscape

But Salam and his cabinet are unlikely to start fundamental changes.

The following parliamentary elections in Lebanon were set for May 2026. Salam, therefore, is a year and a half, in most, in order to address the wide range of questions, from the demolished economy and bad infrastructure to security challenges, before his government fell apart by at the price the action of the law. His government will be responsible for the implementation of the UN Security Council resolution in 1701 and November 27, 2024, a fire interruption agreement with Israel. And Salam, who has not yet fully taken over the Premiership, but has faced and prevailed the crisis of legitimacy.

Salam’s candidacy received support eighty -four from the Lebanese 128 parliamentals. But that didn’t have to happen. His predecessor and longtime ally of Hezbollah, the Najib Miqati, should officeallegedly as part of guarantees and guarantees that presidential candidate Mass give Hezbollah AND Connect Party-Tacked Shiite duo– In an exchange of support for Aon’s elections. When many parties that had been seemingly committed At the last minute, Miqati transferred his voices to Salam, first Hezbollah, and then Amal replied, denying their support. Newspaper pro-hezbollah Al-Akhbar refused what he called “A total American coup“While the boss of the loyalty group for the parliamentary block of resistance, Mohammad Raad, angry defendant Salam supports’ SEVER[ing]“The reconciliable hand of Hezbollah extended by voting for Aoun.

The Šia duo thus denied the support of the only two representative parties of the Lebanese Shias-probably the largest and fastest growing sects in the country. Their statements also left ambiguous connect or support Salam’s government. Although it is not necessary for the constitutional, because Lebanon continues to act on the basis of sharing and consensus of the sectative power, the Convention would require that the Salam cabinet has the support of Pan-Sectaski. Without him, a cloud of illegitimacy and “exclusion” of one of the Lebanese more comprehensive components would hang over his government. Salam and Aoun therefore reportedly spoiled to place the Shiit duo – with salami Sending them guarantees that his appointment was not intended turn off them, and Mass Entry into mediate.

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It seems to be salam and Shiit duo smooth It is important. Caught by guards, Hezbollah and Amal’s non -existence was only temporary political muscle-flexible single out concessions or salami guarantees. It was a similar tactic as when they kept their voices from Aoun during first Voting Circle for President 9 January. composition Salam’s future government or the content of his A statement statementsought to ensure that Salam supports the president’s guarantees who were supposed to go through Miqati – not to move against Hezbollah, his hands or a state of shadow.

To be safe, Salam is closer Candidate for Consensus of Anti-Hezbollah Pugilist Ashraf Rifi and Fouad Makhzoumi, the preferred candidates of opposition to the old guard and activist opposition, who withdrew in favor of the salami. Still, Salam is not a partner and a famous amount like Miqatia. And the enemy prime minister could theoretically start the process of disarming Hezbollah. After all, the Lebanon’s Armed Forces are Constitutional “subject on power of Cabinet“-and not and presidentwho is only their nominal commander.

Leg lines

But Salam is always unlikely to be a quarrel with Hezbollah. Salam’s list of vital tasks is long, and his time on duty could be short. The Šia duo are not marginal social actors. Hezbollah I won 356,122 of 1,951,683 Votes dated in the 2022 Parliamentary elections of any party with 150,000 votes of two separate surveys 2024 showed that 85-93 percent of Shias in Lebanon were 85-93 percent support group. Amal won an additional 191,142 votes. At best, the conflict with them would encounter obstructionism and political paralysis on which the Shiite duo – and especially Hezbollah – looks. In the worst case, given their popularity, it would flirt with the civil war. But their respect, at the very least, enabled the salami and its government to follow at least some of their goals.

Salam must manage the Lebanese economic recovery, update and upgrade of the decaying infrastructure of the country, to bring political and judicial reform and begin post -war renewal. These are difficult elevators for a normal functioning situation, and for Lebanon they can be impossible – even without these challenges not to harmonize, trying to disarm Hezbollah. Therefore, coping with the group is likely to descend to the bottom of Salam’s priorities if he is not completely absent from his agenda.

The danger of Israel continues its campaign against Hezbollah, the main incentive that Lebanon acts against the group, diminished significantly under international and USA pressure with Aon’s elections. The pressure on Israel to refrain from re -escalation in Lebanon is likely to increase, including from Trump administrationwhile Salam forms his government. Salam would not be the first Lebanese politician Consider unreasonable risk the burning of the civil war, pushing itself to disarm Hezbollah to prevent the renewal of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Another Lebanese civil war could last for at least a decade and devastate the whole country. Another complete Israel-hezbollah war, in contrast, can probably be repeated now, would probably be relatively short-lived, and its destruction would probably mostly fall into areas dominated by Hezbollah.

Reports List that Salam’s statement about the cabinet policy will mirror Aon’s inaugural speech. Based on Salam promise in “fully implement the resolution 1701 and all the conditions [November 27] Fire Interruption Agreement, “will probably include Aon’s promise to monopolize the force in the hands of the Lebanese state. Some interpreted these ambiguous words as a vow to disarm Hezbollah. But Lebanon has long been interpreted These terms idiosyncratic exclude a group disarmament. While Salam goes with the formation of his government, and if he manages to secure his premiere, it is very likely that he will return to these interpretations to avoid conflict with Hezbollah, who will turn his term into a paralyzed failure.

David Daoud is an older associate in the Democracy Defense Foundation, where he focuses on the affairs of Israel, Hezbollah and Lebanon.

Further reading

Picture: Lebanese Prime Minister Dawaf Salam speaks in the presidential palace on the day he met with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, in Baabdi, Lebanon, January 14, 2025. Reuters/Mohamed Azakir