Japan’s Ishiba faces balancing act in first meeting with Trump

Seoul, South Korea –

When, on Friday, at the White House in the White House, he meets with US President Donald Trump, his goal, according to Japanese officials, will be direct: to confirm the Union of the USA-Japan and build a strong relationship with Trump.

But many in Tokyo see the goal is even easier: to avoid a diplomatic disaster with a newly opened Trump, whose foreign policy “America first” returned with an even greater intensity than during his first term.

Not even three weeks after he has overwhelmed his duty, Trump escalated pressure on US allies and partners, often in a sudden and unpredictable way.

He threatened tariffs to Mexico and Canada, while raising the possibility of military action against cartel and suggesting that Canada became 51. He swam to Greenland by a colleague of NATO member, and warned to Panama that if he did not suppress the Chinese influence, now he could forcibly take control of the Panaman Channel.

The more developed many withdrew to Tokyo, which relies on the American nuclear umbrella and has long harmonized with the concept of an international order based on the US-led rules.

“If you look at the Japanese media or listen to what the Japanese say, they just hope that Ibiba can come out of this meeting without being a victim of a new attack from America,” said Jeffrey J. Hall, Japanese politics specialist at the University for International Studies Kanda.

Imitating Abe?

So far, Japan has spared Trump’s second criticism. Last week, as he announced his meeting with Ishiba, Trump said: “I like Japan,” citing his friendship with Shinzo Abe, the late former prime minister in the country.

Abe, who led Japan almost all of Trump’s first term, carefully raised his relationship with personal diplomacy and flattery-often playing golf with Trump, and even with a golden golf club. Many Japanese commentators hope that Ibiba can have a similar approach to maintaining smooth relationships with Trump.

But that can be difficult. Unlike Abe, Ishiba runs a volatile minority government and faces the possibility that his party loses his upper home in the key elections later this year.

Analysts also say that less charismatic personality could make it difficult for him to form a personal relationship with Trump.

“He does not do the bullets and the assertive style of communication that Trump makes appreciates,” said Philip Turner, a former older New Zealand diplomat now based in Tokyo. “If flattery is a solution, then Ibiba is probably not very good in that.”

Better stay calm?

The situation is so unstable that some in Japan ask the question of whether Ishiba should currently meet Trump. Instead of getting in danger, they wonder, why not try to stay out of Trump’s radar for as long as possible?

But even a quiet approach may not succeed, said Mieko Nakabayashi, a former Japanese MP. “Some say,” Don’t wake up a bedroom, “but this time they may have to do it,” said Nakabayashi, a professor at the Wased University of Tokyo.

If Trump eventually threatens Japan tariffs, Nakabayashi said it would be better that Ishiba had previously established a personal relationship with him to manage the crisis.

“You have to risk if you want to have a better relationship with Mr. Trump,” she added.

To eliminate potential pressure, analysts say Ishiba can highlight the role of Japan as the largest foreign investor in the United States. He may also want to start economic questions such as attempted by Nippon Steel, American Steel, which blocked former US President Joe Biden’s administration.

But some analysts predict that Ishiba may reduce their ambitions, aiming to simply put the way for Trump’s visit to Japan, where officials would try to show the importance of a first -hand alliance.

Hall said that approach could be successful, at least because “Trump seems to be his plate with many other things right now, and Japan is a kind of reliable partner who doesn’t excite things.”

“But we’ll have to see. We really can’t predict America and how it will act right now, “he added.” He is at the level of uncertainty that Japan has never experienced before. “