Islamic State group-inspired New Orleans attack revives familiar fears

WASHINGTON —

Even before the shock of the deadly New Year’s Eve terror attack in New Orleans could settle, early indications from the investigation pointed to a scenario long feared by American law enforcement and security officials — a plot at least inspired by the Islamic State terrorist group.

The FBI on Wednesday confirmed reports that a suspect planted an IS flag in a pickup truck he drove into a crowd on Bourbon Street early Wednesday before being killed in a shootout with police.

Late Wednesday, US President Joe Biden said the FBI found the suspect had taken other actions “just hours before the attack” to show his loyalty.

Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old American citizen and former Army reservist, “posted videos on social media that show he was inspired by ISIS,” Biden said, using another name for the terrorist group.

“The situation is very fluid,” Biden added. “Police and the intelligence community continue to look for any links, associations or co-conspirators,” he said.

However, that investigation included the execution of search warrants at various locations in New Orleans and other states, an operation by the FBI and other law enforcement officials at a busy intersection in Houston, and questions about whether there was any connection to the attempt to blow up a Tesla Cybertruck outside the hotel Trump in Las Vegas.

Regardless of additional conspirators or connections, the details of the New Orleans attack itself fit the tactics long espoused by IS propagandists.

“What we’ve seen fits the usual pattern we’ve seen from the Islamic State for some time,” said Aaron Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who specializes in jihadism. “They have been calling for car attacks for years.”

“Every day they force supporters, potential recruits, anyone to do something on their behalf,” Zelin told Voice of America.

One of the first IS-related attacks to use a vehicle as a weapon occurred in 2016 in Nice, France. A 31-year-old Frenchman born in Tunisia, who was divorced and suffering from depression, joined the Bastille Day celebrations, killing more than 80 people.

A few months later, a 24-year-old Tunisian drove a truck into a crowd at the Christmas market in Berlinkilling 13 people. Before the attack, he also released a video in which he pledged allegiance to IS.

IS further claimed responsibility for a truck attack in New York City in November 2017 that killed at least eight people, in which police officials said the gunman followed IS instructions on vehicle attacks “almost to the T.”

Even as the IS terrorist group has retreated in the face of counterterrorism pressure in places like Syria and Afghanistan, its leaders have never abandoned their quest to inspire attacks around the world.

“In Afghanistan … ISIS-Khorasan, continues to harbor intent to conduct external operations and maintains English-language media releases aimed at globalizing the group’s local grievances among Western audiences,” US Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas warned in written testimony to Congress in October in 2023

Even the most recent Homeland Security Threat Assessment, released in September, warned that IS, along with other terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, “maintain a persistent intent to carry out or inspire attacks in the homeland”, rating the threat level as “high”. “

The September assessment further warned that IS online media groups were also seeking to exploit the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East “to incite more violent actions”.

FBI Director Christopher Wray has also repeatedly said the bureau’s domestic terrorism caseload remains high, with about 1,000 IS-related investigations each year in all 50 US states.

More than 250 people have been charged with IS-related activities since 2014, according to data compiled by Seamus Hughes, a senior researcher at the National Center for Counter-Terrorism Innovation, Technology and Education (NCITE).

Most of those cases, according to Hughes, resulted in guilty pleas or convictions; Justice Department prosecutors lost only one case that went to trial.

Meanwhile, the FBI has had success disrupting terrorist plots linked to or inspired by IS.

In October, for example, agents arrested a 27-year-old Afghan citizen in Oklahoma City, charging him and a juvenile accomplice with an attempted election day mass shooting.

IS still has not claimed responsibility for the terror attack in New Orleans, but Aaron Zelin of the Washington Institute said the attack is already causing excitement among IS supporters on social media.

Some US counterterrorism officials worry that the excitement will benefit the terrorist group.

“In their view, it’s less important that the attack kill a lot of people than it is that it simply gets a lot of media attention,” Brett Holmgren, acting director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, told an audience in Washington in November.

Some counterterrorism officials and experts, however, say they worry that the attacks could become more deadly.

The NCTC has warned that IS is benefiting from improved finances and has even established an external planning unit in Syria, with a focus on carrying out attacks on the US

“All last year there was an increase in the pace of plots and attacks by the Islamic State,” Zelin told Voice of America. “We saw five attempted attacks in the United States last year, and none in 2023.”

That activity may not be limited to America, as some analysts point out deadly IS attacks last year in Kerman, Iran and Moscow.[[[[[[[[

“It’s consistent with a broader trend that we’ve seen in the US, but also in other parts of the world where, you know, we’ve seen more plots and attacks in Europe, Russia, Turkey, Iran, Central Asia,” Zelin said.