China-backed election raises fears of ‘negative peace’ in Myanmar

WASHINGTON —

As Myanmar’s military government prepares for elections in 2025, attention is turning to neighboring China, which critics say is pressuring Southeast Asian nations to treat the election as a solution to Myanmar’s ongoing political crisis.

A military coup in Myanmar in February 2021 overthrew the democratically elected government and started a civil war that left thousands dead and millions displaced. Myanmar’s neighbors are seeking a solution to the crisis and recently held meetings in Bangkok, Thailand to discuss the matter.

China participated in a December 19 meeting that included Bangladesh, India, Laos and Thailand. All five countries are neighbors of Myanmar.

At the meeting, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong called on representatives of neighbors to support Myanmar’s “peace and reconciliation,” according to a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

“All parties should respect Myanmar’s national conditions and … give priority to people’s livelihoods,” Sun said.

At a meeting held on December 19, Than Swe, Myanmar’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister, outlined the junta’s plan for the 2025 elections. Opposition groups, including the ethnic armed forces and the National Unity Government, or NUG, the parallel government formed after the 2021 coup, rejected the plan, questioning its legitimacy and whether elections would be free and fair.

On December 20, a meeting of representatives of all ASEAN countries was held, except for Myanmar because junta political officials are usually banned from attending high-level meetings of the bloc since the coup.

Thai Foreign Ministry official Bolbongse Vangphaen said the bloc was still awaiting details of the proposed vote, which China supports.

Myanmar’s military leadership did not respond to VOA’s request for comment on the Bangkok meetings, the controversy surrounding the proposed election or preparations for the election.

China maintains close ties with Myanmar’s military and rebel groups near its border.

In his recent Christmas and New Year messages, Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, reiterated and affirmed the government’s commitment to “strengthening the multi-party democratic system and returning to the correct democratic path.”

VOA reached out to the Chinese Embassy in Myanmar for comment on China’s support for the Myanmar election, but did not receive a response. However, during a visit to Myanmar’s capital, Naypyidaw, in mid-August by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Beijing called for “comprehensive elections”, according to the state Myanmar’s global new light newspaper.

Skeptics argue that any elections held by the junta would only lead to a superficial peace that ignores decades-long political and ethnic grievances.

The growing influence of China

Experts told VOA that Beijing is urging ASEAN members to deepen their engagement with Myanmar’s military.

According to Jason Tower of the American Institute of Peace, China is pressuring its Southeast Asian neighbors to accept junta elections as a quick fix.

“From China’s point of view, if ASEAN restores the regime and has higher-level interactions, it lends legitimacy to what China is doing,” Tower said.

Myanmar expert Htet Min Lwin of York University in Canada said Beijing prefers to exploit its influence rather than Western intervention.

“If the resolution passes through ASEAN, where China has significant influence, Beijing will likely continue to push the way ASEAN leads,” he told Voice of America.

Sai Kyi Zin Soe, a regional Myanmar political analyst, agreed.

“Some ASEAN member countries will not be able to overcome China’s influence, economically or in terms of security,” he said. “China’s power does not stop at ASEAN; it also extends to domestic groups, including ethnic armed groups in Myanmar, which now control almost all border areas with China and are traditionally closely linked to China.

Tower, meanwhile, sees no “viable plan” for a political solution and said Beijing sees Myanmar’s generals as “completely cornered” and open to “significant concessions” that could threaten sovereignty, including allowing Chinese troops to protect investments.

“China is heavily arming two northern ethnic armed organizations into talks with the regime,” Tower said. “China’s influence continues to grow, and [Beijing] exerts that influence on other countries in the region, trying to get those countries to follow them.”

He warned that the junta is “bankrupt when it comes to a real solution”, instead relying on “airstrikes, forced recruitment and sham elections to legitimize junta leader Min Aung Hlaing”.

Tower predicted that ASEAN would eventually realize the steady decline of the military.

Increasing losses on the battlefield

Hunt’s China-backed election push comes amid a string of defeats.

“The military is losing ground at an alarming rate and is desperate,” Tower said.

Tower believes that after the fall of two major regional commands, Myanmar’s weakened military has no alternative but to sell parts of its sovereignty to China.

“It’s making big concessions,” he said, citing the Chinese security firm’s joint venture. “For China, this turns Myanmar into a testing ground for its Global Security Initiative and new approaches to securing interests beyond its borders.”

In October, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army or Kokang Group, part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance along with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army, captured the town of Lashio in northern Shan State.

Lashio is considered strategic for the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, marking the first time in Myanmar’s modern history that a regional command has fallen to insurgents.

On December 20, the Arakan Army seized the junta’s Western Regional Command in Rakhine State, a natural gas-rich area that includes major Chinese projects. A video on social media shows exhausted junta troops surrendering. Tower said it was “an embarrassment to the military”.

“The bottom line is growing desperation,” Tower said, adding that this explains why Myanmar’s military is ceding sovereignty to China, including the potential deployment of Chinese private security troops in Rakhine state.

Concerns about ‘negative peace’

Analysts say elections without real dialogue will result in a fragile ceasefire.

“All the neighboring countries, including China, cannot understand that each ethnic group in Myanmar has its own right to rule and sovereignty,” said Htet Min Lwin.

Sai Kyi Zin Soe pointed out, citing data from the World Bank and the United Nations, that 42 million of Myanmar’s 53 million people now live in poverty.

He said the humanitarian crisis could force many armed groups to stop fighting, but would not necessarily resolve the conflict.

“If the international community pressures them, the war may stop and elections will be held,” Sai Kyi Zin Soe said. “However, it will not be a solution that benefits Myanmar in the long run. It should be understood that only negative peace will prevail.”

Tower told VOA that there could be an opportunity for ASEAN to expand its role this year, but China’s involvement, especially in border areas, could overshadow that.

“If other countries don’t pay careful attention to Chinese interference,” he said, “the response in Myanmar will turn more in Beijing’s direction.”