Can Lebanon’s new president stabilize a country in crisis?

Ending a presidential vacuum that lasted almost two and a half years, the 128-seat Lebanese parliament today selected General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), is the new president of the tiny Mediterranean country.

Aoun takes office at a time when Lebanon is struggling with a series of crises. The economy, which crashed dramatically in October 2019, has shown little sign of recovery as Lebanon’s political bosses have consistently failed to implement the necessary reforms that would unlock international financial aid. Since the previous president, Michel Aoun (no relation to Joseph Aoun), stepped down at the end of his six-year term in October 2022, the government has been operating in a limited interim capacity, unable to pass critical legislation. Lebanon is also struggling with the consequences of the devastating war between Hezbollah and Israel. Lebanese officials report that more than 3,800 people were killed, and the actual number could be much higher. Other sources claim that only among members of Hezbollah the number of dead in the past year is even up to four thousand. The first assessment of the World Bank estimates that the war caused the least 8.5 billion dollars worth the damage.

Israeli troops are still deployed in the southern Lebanese border district, more than halfway through a fragile 60-day truce that ends on January 27. Israeli forces continue to carry out airstrikes and dynamite border villages and any Hezbollah military infrastructure they find in daily life. violations of the ceasefire agreement. There is no guarantee that the Israelis will leave Lebanon by the end of the truce, which is why the American mediators allegedly have asked for an extension of the contract.

The new president has been the favorite to take over as Lebanon’s head of state since Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called an election session for January 9 on November 28, a day after the ceasefire came into effect. However, Aoun’s arrival at the top of the country only solidified the fast in the last twenty-four hours. Suleiman Frangieh—leader of the Marada movement, grandson of the former president and Hezbollah’s choice for the position—he bowed race on January 8, declaring that he would throw his support behind the army chief.

This was followed by a bunch of statements by members of parliament that they too would vote for Aoun. Parliament held two rounds of voting. In the first round, Aoun received seventy-one votes, fifteen short of the required two-thirds majority. Usually, in the second round, a simple majority is enough to win the election. However, Berri said Aoun, as a civil servant and therefore constitutionally ineligible to run, would have to get more than two-thirds in the second round. He eventually secured ninety-nine votes, helped in part by Hezbollah, which abstained in the first round as a “message”, according to senior party official Mohammed Raad, before backing Aoun in the second round.

The burly, shaven-headed Aoun is a popular figure in Lebanon, having led the LAF through the country’s recent unrest. Five months after he was appointed army chief in March 2017, the LAF was waging a major battle against Islamic State, which had been entrenched in the barren mountains of northeastern Lebanon along the border with Syria for the previous three years. The LAF destroyed the Islamic State in just over a week.

During the mass protests that accompanied the economic collapse in October 2019, Aoun disobeyed orders from the then president and other top politicians for the LAF to drive protesters off the streets. Aoun, instead, allowed the demonstrations to continue as long as they were under control. His evenness won praise from many Lebanese. He also managed to keep the LAF together as a coherent unit despite massive inflation, which resulted in soldiers’ pay dropping to next to nothing, leading to some desertions and absenteeism. Fluent in French and English, in addition to his native Arabic, Aoun has made many international friends. This is particularly true in the United States and the United Kingdom, both of which have provided financial support and training to the LAF for years.

However, his closeness to Washington has drawn criticism from some Hezbollah-affiliated media outlets, which view the LAF’s warm ties with the United States and the US military with suspicion. Despite this, Aoun has managed to navigate the extremely complex relationship between the LAF and Hezbollah over the years. The LAF has been criticized in some quarters for failing to actively disarm Hezbollah in accordance with United Nations Security Council resolutions. However, the LAF is only the implementing arm of state policy. So far, no Lebanese government has ordered the LAF to move against Hezbollah, as such a move is widely believed in Lebanon to trigger a civil war.

Hezbollah is not an entity separate from the rest of Lebanon that can be isolated and neutralized. It is deeply woven into the social and political fabric of the country. Instead, given that the LAF and Hezbollah are essentially two armies squeezed into a relatively small geographic space, they have learned to live with each other, sometimes uncomfortably, in what is often described locally as a case-by-case, interest-based process. deconfliction.

In his inaugural speech, minutes after being elected and sworn in, Aoun promised to call for “rapid parliamentary consultations” to speed up the formation of a new government. He also said there is now a historic opportunity to start a serious dialogue with the new Syrian rulers to resolve outstanding issues, such as delineating their common border and resolving the fate of Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

Tellingly, Aoun too promised that Lebanon will follow the path of “positive neutrality” and will work to “affirm the state’s right to monopolize the bearing of arms.” These comments reflect the terms of the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel. As such, they should do well in Washington. Hezbollah will, no doubt, be watching the new president’s moves carefully in the coming months. But Aoun is a pragmatist and is unlikely to provoke a conflict with Hezbollah, which, despite blows from the recent war, remains powerful in the country and potentially dangerous if it feels threatened.

For now, Lebanon can breathe a sigh of relief that a capable person has filled the presidential void. But the new president takes office amid daunting challenges, the fate of Hezbollah’s weapons certainly prominent, but not the only one.

Nicholas Blanford is a non-resident senior fellow for Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council.

Additional reading

Picture: Lebanese army chief Joseph Aoun walks after being elected as the country’s president at the parliament building in Beirut, Lebanon January 9, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir