Can increased energy sector sanctions pressure Putin into peace talks?

US President Donald Trump has warned Russia That it will impose economic measures, including taxes, tariffs and sanctions, unless Russian President Vladimir Putin agrees to end the war in Ukraine. Although far from clear whether only economic pressure can bring Putin to the negotiating table, the Russian oil and gas industry looks like the most vulnerable sector of his war economy.

Sanctions in the United States about the Russian energy industry have already been tightened in the first weeks of 2025. Just before leaving the White House, leaving US President Joe Biden fired a divorced salvo of Comprehensive new sanctions About Russian oil producers, intermediaries, tankers, traders and ports that manage oil and furnished natural gas (LNG).

This package was widely considered one of the most aggressive than the beginning of the Russian invasion. The impact is already felt globally. Some banks in India, which are currently to catch There are allegedly about 40% of all Russian oil supplied to international markets Payment blocking for Russian oil imports. Meanwhile, Fleet capacity Russian exports of raw oil are expected to serve significantly due to the latest limitations.

With oil sanctions also target the main manufacturers such as surgutneftegaz and Gazprom neft, as well as more than 180 vessels in the Russian oil fleet, some observers are now prediction That the Kremlin could lose up to $ 24 billion in the coming year. That would be equal to about one percent of the projected GDP to the country.

These latest sanctions come because Moscow is already adapted to the end of the gas transit via Ukraine, after Kiev refused to expand the five -year contract that expired At the beginning of the current year. By interrupting this gas transit agreement, Russia has lost another large part of the European market.

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Trump vowed during his inaugural address “drill, baby, drill. “Since then, initial steps have been involved in support of the fossil fuel sector in the United States lift Freezing of biden administration at export permits for LNG projects.

Many are now expecting more LNG from the United States to Europe, potentially replacing the remaining delivery of Russian gas. Increasing American exports at a time when the Russian gas industry already faces growing obstacles would set Trump in a strong position on the eve of the negotiations on the possible settlement of the war in Ukraine.

Trump could potentially increase the pressure on Putin by persuading Ukrainian authorities to prohibit the transit of Russian raw oil via Ukraine to Hungary. There is currently account In the Ukrainian parliament by calling the government Stop the oil transit and deprive the Kremlin up to $ 6 billion sells to European customers. Additional options include a lower price limit, further sanctions for the remaining shipments and expanded secondary sanctions.

The United States may have fewer opportunities in terms of gas -related sanctions. With the demand of key importers of LNG like China and India projected to recover 2025. US exports can be diverted to Asia, leaving Europe more relying on Russian gas and pipeline gas. Additional LNG production from Canada the western coast It can create greater supply options later this year, but this may not be enough to satisfy European consumers or solve problems due to growing energy accounts.

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Although Trump’s efforts to economically undermine Russia will face a series of practical challenges, there is no doubt that Putin’s energy empire looks brittle.

Russian gazprom seems to be specially in a difficult position. Kremlin’s leading energy company has reported Losses of more billions of dollars in the last two years, with the trend probably getting worse in 2025. Due to the end of the Ukrainian gas transit. The odds for Gazprom are so upset right now that the company allegedly asking for increasing domestic gas prices.

The new administration of the United States has quickly signaled that the Russian economy is seen as the most vulnerable point of Putin’s regime. Trump obviously wants to use that weakness to end the war in Ukraine. The efforts now -and will probably focus on the energy industry that serves as the engine of the Russian war machine.

Ideally, the United States will cooperate closely with the EU and the United Kingdom in the coming months to expand current sanctions of the Russian energy sector, while at the same time working on the implementation of the implementation of existing measures. This would send an unambiguous message to Moscow that the current Russian economic troubles will only worse if Putin rejects the negotiating settlement and refuses to end the invasion of Ukraine.

Dr. Aura Sabadus is a higher energy journalist that writes about Eastern Europe, Turkey and Ukraine for independent intelligence service department (ICIS), London global energy and petrochemical news and market data. Her views are hers.

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The views expressed in Ukrainealelelers are solely views and do not necessarily reflect the attitudes of the Atlantic Council, his staff or his supporters.

AND Eurasia Center The mission is to improve transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values ​​and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey to the west to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

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