Assad has fallen. Now what?

The butcher left the building. On Sunday, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fled the country as rebel groups took over Damascus, in a stunning turnaround in Syria’s devastating thirteen-year civil war. The shift in power in Syria will reverberate throughout the Middle East and the world, from Russia and Iran to Turkey and the United States. Our experts are here to explain all the implications.

• Rich Outzen (@RichOutzen): Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Turkey Program, former US State Department official and former US Army Foreign Affairs Officer
• Qutaiba Idlbi (@Qidlby): Senior Fellow of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs, where he leads the Syria portfolio
• Kirsten Fontenrose: Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and former US National Security Council Senior Director for the Gulf
• Jonathan Panikoff (@jpanikoff): Director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former US Deputy Director of National Intelligence for the Middle East

What Syrians think

• Celebrations across Syria reflect the essence: “The long suffering of the Syrian people under a brutal regime that killed, tortured, dispossessed and exiled millions of its people is over.” Rich tell us.
• The United States can step in to prevent chaos, Qutaiba claims. The Biden administration should immediately increase funding to “rebuild infrastructure, provide health care and support momentum for the rapid return of refugees and displaced persons.”

What HTS thinks

• The Syrian rebel group that led the offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States, has earned a seat at the transition negotiating table, Kirsten tell us. But there are dangers to HTS-led governance. “HTS statements about respect for minorities should not be interpreted as a sign of moderation in the group’s ideology,” she warns, adding that “the Taliban made similar ‘campaign’ promises to protect women’s rights and minorities in order to gain power, and then flagrantly betrayed them.”
• Noting that the newly elected American president is Donald Trump he asserted that the United States should not interfere in the conflict in Syria, Kirstenwho served in the first Trump administration, tells us that “the only way to [Syrian] the opposition to win favors from the next US administration is to quickly present a pragmatic and unified plan for a transitional government, elections and ongoing governance.”
• An important factor will be how the international community uses its newfound power. “No entity, including HTS, will be able to effectively run the country without almost complete dependence on foreign aid,” Kirsten he says. More “this is the point in post-conflict scenarios where donors tend to screw things up” implementing different reconstruction plans, empowering competing political actors, financing double projects and not tying funding to certain milestones.

What the regional powers are thinking about

• “Iran and Russia have suffered a dramatic loss of influence in Syria and the region as a result of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine,” Rich he says. The two powers were capable of helping Assad in 2014-2015, but it was “impossible” for them to do so now, he points out.
• For the Gulf states, the reaction to Assad’s overthrow will be contradictory, Jonathan he speaks to us from Doha. Qatar “might be more inclined to provide financial resources for any government that emerges in Damascus,” he says, but the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have “long-standing concerns” about Islamist governments and “a reluctance to just hand out free money, as opposed to investments in countries.” This may prompt the latter two countries to wait and see what kind of leadership emerges in Syria.
• And Israel will probably have mixed feelings, Jonathan he explains, given the uncertainty over who will follow Assad. Still, Israel has weakened Lebanon-based Hezbollah, a key supporter of Assad, in recent months to the point that “Syrian opposition forces were confident they could take advantage.” Israel, Jonathan reasons, they may now want to use the development to privately negotiate with the rising Syrian leaders to ensure security in the north.
• “Turkey is the only country that seems to have a winning strategy for Syria,“, he says Rich. It opposed Assad while negotiating with his supporters, accepting refugees and supporting the opposition politically and militarily. Ankara, Rich he adds, he now has “unsurpassed power” over the process of stabilization and reconstruction, and the goodwill of many Syrians.
• Stabilization, Qutaiba notes, will require the United States to include Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel and Jordan in the talks. “Encouraging dialogue between rival states,” he argued, could “help reduce tensions and foster cooperative security arrangements.”

Additional reading

Related experts:
Qutaiba Idlbi,
Jonathan Panikoff,
Kirsten Fontenroseand
Rich Outzen

Image: Women use their mobile phones near a defaced image of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as people celebrate, after Syrian rebels announced they had ousted President Bashar al-Assad, in Qamishli, Syria December 8, 2024. REUTERS/Orhan Qereman