A US blueprint for Syria’s fragile transition

MENA Source

December 21, 2024 • 3:27 PM ET

America’s blueprint for a fragile transition in Syria

Per
Sana Sekkarie

On December 8, Syrian opposition forces captured the capital Damascus from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has ruled the country with an iron fist for decades. The gains on the ground were led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a US-sanctioned group formerly linked to an al-Qaeda affiliate but which has increasingly softened its stance. Assad’s fall is not only a military victory for the rebels, but also a moment of hope for Syrians who have lived under his authoritarian rule for decades. While Syrians use this time to celebrate and overthrow statues and billboards of the Assad family that have haunted them for decades, it is an open question what will be next for Syrians.

At this point, HTS wants to build goodwill within Syria and internationally. The United States should act quickly and strategically to ensure the country’s transition to a more stable and democratic system. The United States can use its diplomatic, economic, and political tools to influence the post-Assad landscape in Syria. Here are some key steps the United States should consider.

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1. Give diplomatic recognition to the new government

The political situation in Syria is fluid, and the future government is likely to be a coalition of opposition groups, civil society organizations, and representatives of various ethnic and sectarian groups, including HTS. One of the most significant actions that Washington could take is early diplomatic recognition of this nascent government—contingent on its commitment to a peaceful transition, democratic reforms, and protection of human rights. Recognition may depend on certain steps, including:

• Formation of the transitional government: This government should represent Syria’s diverse political and ethnic groups and include women, youth, political structures currently in exile, and opposition military factions.
• Commitment to the democratic process: The interim government should agree to hold free and fair elections with international supervision and establish a justice and accountability mechanism to address past crimes.
• Constitutional reform: A new, inclusive constitution should be developed with input from all Syrian stakeholders to lay the foundations for a democratic system of governance.
• International supervision: The United Nations should be allowed to oversee the transition, including monitoring justice and accountability processes and ensuring the dismantling of Syria’s chemical weapons program. Encouragingly, HTS has indicated its willingness to cooperate with the international community in monitoring the military locations of the Assad regime.

2. Provide humanitarian aid and assistance in reconstruction

Syria is facing a huge humanitarian crisis. Millions of Syrians have been displaced, and much of the country’s infrastructure is in ruins. The United States should work with international organizations to ensure effective distribution of aid. Given the opposition’s experience in governance, existing structures on the ground can be used to channel aid, minimizing the risks that would arise from trying to create entirely new systems from scratch. However, this aid should be conditional:

• Political involvement: The transitional government must equitably provide aid to all regions of Syria.
• Anti-corruption measures: Donors must insist on transparency and accountability mechanisms to prevent misuse of funds.

3. Begin the process of removing sanctions on HTS and the new Syrian government

HTS is currently indicated by the United States as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). The group’s changing attitudes, including its recent publicity obligations to protect religious minorities and refrain from retributive violence, suggests that HTS may be open to political accommodation. The United States should initiate a gradual process in good faith to remove the sanctions and designation of HTS and the new Syrian government. In addition, the United States has indicated The government of Syria has been a state sponsor of terrorism since the 1970s and has since added additional sanctions starting in 2011 in response to the Assad regime’s violence and repression. This process may include:

• Gradual lifting of sanctions against HTS: The United States should begin by removing sanctions on individuals who demonstrate a willingness to engage in political transition, particularly the leaders of HTS. Over time, as HTS shows concrete steps towards reconciliation, further sanctions may be lifted.
• Rapid lifting of sanctions against Syria: Lifting broader sanctions on Syria can be done quickly, as the new Syrian government is likely to be hostile to US-designated terrorist groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah or Iraq’s Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which were instrumental in bolstering the previous Syrian regime. Regarding the second set of sanctions against Syria related to the regime’s violence against civilians, if HTS fulfills its promises to refrain from retaliatory violence against civilians, the United States should lift this second set of sanctions as well.
• Diplomatic engagement: Cooperation with HTS and other opposition groups is essential. Last US policy on similar groups, such as the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), shows that delisting a group from the FTO list is possible if the organization demonstrates a genuine commitment to peace.

4. Cooperation on counter-terrorist measures

HTS has a law enforcement body that, as of 2017, conducted dozens of operations against Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) cells operating in northwestern Syria, including the arrest of many members of its leadership. HTS also has arrested members of the branch of al-Qaeda in Syria, Hurras al-Din, mostly dismantling organization. HTS will have an interest in preventing extremist actors from attempting reform in Syria while the rest of the country rebuilds. The United States may thus find HTS willing to cooperate in counterterrorism measures.

• Intelligence sharing: Sharing intelligence on counter-terrorism measures can build good faith on both sides and prevent the spread of extremist groups.

5. Encourage the participation of the SDF in the political process

The Kurdish population in Syria, especially those in the northeast, will play a key role in the country’s future. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been key allies in the fight against ISIS, but tensions with other opposition groups remain. The United States should encourage dialogue between the SDF and HTS, as well as other opposition factions. This dialogue could include:

• Involvement of Kurdish leaders in the political process: The future Syria should represent the interests of all Syrians, including Kurds, Arabs and other minorities. The United States can mediate talks between the SDF and HTS to ensure Kurdish representation in the future government.

Seize the moment

The failure of the United States to engage with Syria’s new leadership could lead to several negative outcomes. HTS could become further radicalized if it lacks international checks or relies on other actors for diplomacy, trade and support. Russia and Iran could fill the vacuum and team up with the new Syrian government to sideline the US in the region. A new Syrian government without international support could descend into chaos and sow instability, leading to further mass displacement across the rest of the region. The United States must seize this moment to help influence Syria’s future, rather than waiting to see what happens. No potential path forward for Syria or HTS is imminent. The sooner the United States takes concrete action, the more likely it can have a positive impact on Syria’s future.

HTS leader Ahmed al-Shara, formerly known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, entered the political scene in Syria more than ten years ago. He has long been aware of the lessons learned from al-Qaeda’s failure to win the support of the Iraqi people. HTS was founded by military officials who wanted to work within the context of the societies in which they lived. HTS has continuously moderated from its own start and stop by Jabhat al-Nusra—the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda—in 2017. Of course, part of its strategy may be for optics, but most of the group’s rhetoric on moderation has taken the form of concrete actions. HTS has an Administration for Minorities which has guaranteed the safety of Christians and Alawites under their control. HTS has ordered his fighters not to disturb public institutions. And the larger and more diverse the population that comes under its governance, the more HTS will need to develop and the less power it will have to determine what governance looks like on the ground.

It is important not to overdo the current moderation of HTS. The group is not a bastion of liberal democracy and its political evolution is still ongoing. However, HTS is active looking for diplomatic recognition and expressed readiness to cooperate with the international community. The United States should not expect perfection, but it should recognize that political entities are capable of evolving, especially when faced with governance realities and international expectations. Shara has already reached regional countries including Lebanon, Iraqand Russiaassuring them that he intends to have good relations despite his past support for their past support for Assad. If HTS proves genuinely open to dialogue and reform, the United States should seek engagement, not exclusion.

As long as HTS is willing to evolve and accept constructive criticism, the United States should cooperate with the group. Ignoring Syria’s new leaders will not make them go away. US outreach toward HTS is not just engagement for engagement’s sake. A post-Assad Syria, especially one with leaders willing to work with Washington, presents an opportunity for the United States to promote stability and democracy in the Middle East, contain Iranian and Russian influence in the region, and provide a safe home for Syrians inside and outside of Syria.

Sana Sekkarie is a digital threat analyst with a focus on the Middle East. She was previously a researcher focusing on Syrian opposition groups at the Institute for the Study of War and the University of Virginia.

Additional reading

Image: People hold flags adopted by Syria’s new rulers, during a celebration called by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Umayyad Square, following the ouster of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, December 20, 2024. REUTERS/Ammar Awad REFILE – LOCATION CORRECTION FROM “NEAR UMAYYAD” MOSQUE” TO “ON UMAYYAD SQUARE”.