A double bind: How unrest and geopolitics could end Serbia’s government

This winter he saw that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was on a dangerously thin ice. Mass anti -corruption protests led by students led to Resignation Prime Minister, Milos Vucevic, as well as several other members of his government. Last week the President hinted that restlessness could lead to Snap parliamentary elections Come spring.

But the public anger and the government of demolishing Vucic are far from his only problems. Even before the protest, the president’s long -term approach to à la carte “seemed to be the external policy of the protection of Serbia between the West and Russia (with the secondary order of China) in distress. Both the European Union and Russia pressed Belgrade to choose the side. Now Vucic has found himself with very little international sympathy for his domestic troubles – and very little room for maneuver.

This gives Europeans a key opportunity to help direct events towards stability and democratic progress, at the same time a minimizing risk of regional crossing. In order to prevent long -term instability and restore Serbia to the road, the EU should support civil society, resolve regional tensions and strengthen the European trajectory of Serbia.

Some things are not new in Belgrade

Mass protests led by students began last November after the roof of the Novi Awud Railway railway broke down, killing 15 people and seriously injuring two more people, and many Serb are responsible for the Government’s corruption. The protesters’ complaints have been complex since then, quoting Bad management of public funds and poor management, with existing dissatisfaction with Lack of media freedom,, the dysfunctional rule of law ia Intentional lack of electoral reformNot to mention Vucic’s corruption and organized crime connections. They now require a systematic change in the management of the land and which manages it.

In many ways, this is nothing new. Serbs often protest against broad corruption, choice and non-liberal role of VUCIC, with wide demonstrations against the Government in the Government 2017,, 2018,, 2020and 2023. Until recently, however, Vucic managed to retain a lid on political opposition labeling them as foreign agents and use of arrests, police forces and intimidation.

This time, however, the tide turns. Vucic repeatedly rejected the protesters and their complaints (and there are even skipped in defense driver who ran into a bunch of protesters and caused serious injuries). But he failed to push the anger of Serbia. The current wave of protest has collected attraction among the wide parts of society – have support around two thirds the population and whether they are largest Since 2000, when mass protests helped to throw out then President Slobodan Milosevic.

Trouble inside and out

Such a clear account of domestic unpopularity for Vucic influenced the willingness of his international partners to stand behind him. On the one hand, Russia is public warned Serbia against descent in “chaos”. Although Moscow is unlikely to support the leader in half a door, it will not easily give up Serbia. Instead of supporting Vucic, Russia is likely to try to mobilize a prophetic population in Serbia against him or any other government that takes another step towards Europe. On the other hand, the EU has re -confirmed the need for the protection of citizens and protesters, but to a large extent she was silent, not in a hurry in Vucic’s help on behalf of the name stability As it was case in the past.

Vucic did not process strong relations with the EU or Russia, and both called into question the reliability of Serbia as a partner long before protests broke out

This risks to agree to Vucic’s fight for maintenance “à la carte“Foreign policy. During his term, he placed Serbia between the EU (because of his economic and financial fees) and Putin’s Russia (for undermine Kosovo’s independence, its gas and its affection of the non -liberal rule) while nibbling on other economies like China. In the short term, Belgrade’s ability to avoid fully alignment with any particular block allowed him to play his game and make an economic win. Continued to build relationships by signing commercial agreements with countries like Egypt,, Israeland South Korea. But in the long run, Vucic did not cultivate strong relations with the EU or Russia, and both called into question the reliability of Serbia as a partner long before the protests broke out.

For Brussels, Serbia, business with Moscow was a reason for concern. Ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Serbia has failed to join the EU -in sanctioning Russia, and Vucic has recently been offered yourself as a relationship to mediation between Ukraine and Russia, quoting Long friendship of Serbia with Moscow. More recently, the President has appointed two dentists and American sanctioned individuals As the new members of his cabinet, even after news at the Serbian agent for Russian influence within the EU institutional bodies. In its last report on the approach, the EU registered the issues of the rule of law, the lack of freedom of the media and the lag in democratic practices, as well as the still unfulfilled promise to recognize Kosovo. The hesitation of a Member State has prevented the next phase of opening the negotiations, while Brussels has warned Serbia struggling with Russia on such issues is contrary to the EU -U -UI regional stability, but little success.

Moscow also loses patience. After the recent Now sanctioning Energy companies based in Serbia NIS, from which Russia has a 56% stake, the media close to the Russian Ministry of Defense published an article directly condemning Vucic for his role in sanctioning nis for closing Military cooperation with Russia in attempts to show loyalty to the West. The article warns Vucica that he may turn his back on Russia, but that a crunchy Serbian population will not walk the same way. Russia also stepped down from its typical attitude against Kosovo’s independence claim that if the EU is recognized Kosovo, Moscow is justified by the claim that the occupied Ukrainian region Donbas should be recognized as Russian – which is a lot of disappointment of Belgrade.

How can Europeans answer

All of this means that the final erosion of Vucic’s power could be in sight. This would be useful for the European future of Serbia in the long run. In the short term, however, the political power of Serbia is so long concentrated that it could probably be reorganized. This could cause domestic and regional instability. Within Serbia, tension between citizens and police could escalate, stimulating greater anger among the population. Criminal groups can also take the opportunity to expand their business, worsening internal instability and contributing to the rise of corruption.

Such turmoil would cause collateral damage to neighboring countries. For example, nationalist Serbs in Serbia can use instability to arouse tension on Kosovo, risking a similar militia attacks Until September 2023, nationalist forces from Serbia and Republika Srpska could take advantage of the moment of chaos to encourage the succession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina.

There are several things that the EU could do to support the smooth transition of strength and alleviate these potential influences. First, in order to avoid the effects of pouring on regional stability, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, where the status quo fragile, the EU and NATO should provide ethnic and political tensions do not escalate and that it is stability held.

Second, EU policy creators should be involved in conversations with other members of the Serbian government, opposition and civil society and work in delegation formats to encourage responsibility. Dialogues could be aimed at facilitating the smooth approach of the EU, renewing coherence within the Serbian political leadership and repairing democratic checks and states in the country.

Finally, the capital and the EU institutions should take advantage of this appropriate moment to send a strong message that the future of Serbia in Europe and sends strong support to students, whose demands are at the end all similar in need of European values. This will help to alleviate Russia’s attempt to permeate unrest among the scabies of the population. In order to show the support of pro-democratic protesters in Serbia, the EU should signal that without progress in the rule of law, democratic practice and media freedom, its financial incentives will not be available.

Although Serbs are determined not to leave the streets until their demands are not fulfilled, the political alternative seems to be not in sight And the regime remains, at least for now. This is where European doors of politics play: they should support citizens trying to rewrite the history of their country with the values ​​that are at the core of the EU. This would finally show that the EU is much more than an institutional structure; It is a product of interconnected ideas that echoes deeply in the social and political life of European countries.